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Nick Briggs, Realtor
The real estate market has always been a subject of intense scrutiny and speculation. As we approach 2024, various financial institutions and research firms have released their predictions for the housing market. Let’s dive into the forecasts from some of the most reputable sources for their 2024 real estate market predictions.
Goldman Sachs’ Housing Market Outlook
Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, has made some significant revisions to its housing market predictions:
- Home Price Forecast: Contrary to their previous prediction of a 2.2% decline, Goldman Sachs now anticipates a 1.8% increase in home prices for 2023.
- Housing Affordability Index: This index reached a record low in August. The factors influencing this decline include household income, housing prices, and mortgage rates. Even though household incomes have been rising, they haven’t kept up with the surge in mortgage rates and the consistent appreciation of home values over the years.
- Mortgage Rate Predictions: Goldman Sachs expects a drop of approximately 100 basis points in mortgage rates by the end of 2024. This could bring some stability to housing affordability.
- New Home Supply: A significant portion of newly built homes is still under construction. This has been a major contributor to the current inventory shortage in the housing market.
Fannie Mae’s Housing Market Forecast
Fannie Mae, a major player in the mortgage industry, has its own set of predictions:
- Economic Outlook: Fannie Mae is predicting a modest recession, which could start either in the last quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2024.
- Housing Market Resilience: Despite the looming recession, the strength of the housing market, characterized by a limited supply and robust demand from buyers, is expected to mitigate the economic downturn’s impact.
- Home Price Growth: Fannie Mae has revised its forecast for home price growth. They now predict a 3.9% increase for 2023, up from their previous prediction of a 1.2% decline. However, for 2024, they anticipate a decrease of 0.7% in home prices.
- Mortgage Rate Outlook: Mortgage rates have hovered between 6% and 7% since the beginning of the year. Fannie Mae expects this trend to continue as long as the Federal Reserve persists with its interest rate hikes.
Mortgage Rate Predictions by Various Research Firms:
- Mortgage Bankers Association: They expect the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 5.9% in Q4 2023, dropping to 4.9% by Q4 2024.
- Morningstar: Their projections for the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate are 6.25% in 2023, 5.0% in 2024, and 4.0% in 2025.
- National Association of Realtors (NAR): NAR forecasts the rate to decrease to 6.4% by the end of 2023 and further to 6.0% in 2024.
- Morgan Stanley: Their strategists predict the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to start 2024 at 6.0%.
- Moody’s Analytics: They project the rate to average 6.5% for most of 2023, decrease to 6.0% by the end of 2024, and then reach 5.5% in 2025.
- Fannie Mae: Their forecast is for the rate to average 6.6% in Q4 2023, and then average out at 5.9% in Q4 2024. For the entire 2024, they expect an average rate of 6.1%.
Conclusion
The consensus among these predictions is that while there might be economic challenges on the horizon, the housing market’s inherent strength will likely cushion the blow. Mortgage rates, although fluctuating, are expected to see a gradual decline, which could bring relief to potential homebuyers. However, the supply of new homes remains a concern, and it’s something the industry needs to address to ensure a balanced market.
As always, while these 2024 real estate market predictions provide a roadmap, the real estate market’s actual trajectory can be influenced by various unforeseen factors. It’s essential for investors, homebuyers, and industry professionals to stay informed and be prepared for any market shifts.
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